The global ecommerce growth rate for 2020 is expected to come in at 19 percent, bringing total ecommerce sales worldwide in 2020 to $4.206 trillion. Ecommerce sales growth rates are, however, expected to ebb as part of a slowdown that will likely last until at least 2023.
Already, we’re seeing evidence of weakening figures. The ecommerce sales growth figure of 20.7 percent in 2019 is 2.2 percentage points lower than the growth rate registered in 2018 and 7.3 percentage points lower than the previous year.
In fact, the ecommerce sales growth rate is expected to nearly halve from 2017 to the current forecast for 2023, falling below 20 percent from 2020 onwards.
But despite the decline, online retail growth will hold strong with the total ecommerce sales surging from $2.382 trillion to $6.542 trillion between 2017 and 2023 – a 175 percent increase in just six years.
Equally impressive growth is also expected for the ecommerce market share, which will more than double from 10.4 percent in 2017 to 22 percent in 2023.
Ecommerce Sales Growth by Region
Much of the 2019 growth is driven by the Asia-Pacific region, which will see a 25 percent ecommerce growth rate in 2019. This is followed by the regions of Latin America and the Middle East and Africa, both of which can expect to see online retail growth rates of 21.3 percent.
North America will see relatively slow growth this year, with a growth rate of 14.5 percent across the region. Most of this growth is spurred by Mexico, which is expecting a growth rate of 35 percent – the highest of all countries. Mexico strongly beats out its North American counterparts, Canada and the United States, whose growth rates are predicted at 21.1 percent and 14 percent respectively.
The region with the slowest ecommerce sales growth rate Western Europe. At 10.2 percent, its growth rate is half as fast as that of the global ecommerce growth rate.
As the world’s largest ecommerce market, China is set to see an increase in ecommerce sales from $1.520 trillion in 2018 to $1.935 trillion in 2019. This growth rate of 27.3 percent making it the fourth-fastest growing country in 2019 in terms of ecommerce sales.