US Ecommerce Growth Projections (2024–2028)
Recent data indicates that in the second quarter of 2024, ecommerce sales in the United States reached an all-time high, surging by 6.7% year-on-year to reach $291.6 billion. This notable increase underscores the upward trajectory of ecommerce penetration rates, which have been rising steadily in recent years and are projected to continue their annual growth until at least 2028.
But what implications does this hold for US ecommerce sales, and what do US ecommerce growth projections look like in the coming years? We explore industry analysts’ US ecommerce forecasts to gain a better understanding of the landscape ahead.
US ecommerce forecast (2024–2028): table
|
Year |
US ecommerce growth projections |
|
2024 |
+8.7% |
|
2025 |
+8.6% |
|
2026 |
+8.8% |
|
2027 |
+9.0% |
|
2028 |
+8.5% |
US ecommerce growth projections: 2024
According to a recent report, between 2022 and 2028, online shopping sales are set to expand at a rate over four times greater than that of in-store retail, highlighting a significant consumer preference shift towards digital purchases.
A closer look at the data reveals that US ecommerce sales are projected to rise by 8.7% in 2024. This marks a 0.3 percentage point slowdown from the previous year’s rate and a downward revision from an earlier forecast by analysts, in which a 10.5% increase had been anticipated for 2024.
Industry analysts suggest that this deceleration indicates a normalization of US ecommerce growth rates to pre-pandemic levels. Notably, in 2020 and 2021, annual growth rates soared to extraordinary levels, reaching 36.7% and 17.3%, respectively.
Experts anticipate that deals and discounts promoted on digital platforms will serve as the primary driving force behind the US ecommerce forecast for 2024. In terms of age demographics, Generation Z consumers are expected to emerge as key contributors to this surge in ecommerce activity.
US ecommerce growth projections: 2025–2028
Looking ahead, US ecommerce growth projections show growth rates are expected in the high single digits.
Analysts studying the US’s ecommerce forecast expect growth to reach 8.6% in 2025, as online sales rise to approximately $1.3 trillion. In 2026, a slight acceleration is projected, with annual growth expected to reach 8.8%.
By 2027, US ecommerce sales are set to exceed $1.5 trillion, after a 9% yearly increase. In 2028, growth is expected to slightly slow to 8.5%, with total ecommerce sales forecast to reach approximately $1.7 trillion.The US ecommerce market share is also set to hit 20% that year, which means that $1 out of every $5 spent on retail items in 2028 is set to be transacted online.
From 2024 to 2028, US ecommerce growth projections show sales are set to rise at an average annual growth rate of 8.7%.