Ecommerce’s share of retail sales worldwide is forecast to be 20.3% in 2024. Put simply, more than one-fifth of retail goods sold will be done online. This figure is set to continue rising over the years and hit 23% by 2027.

In the United States, not only has the number of people shopping online been rising, annual ecommerce sales are also setting new records every year, even surpassing $1 trillion in 2022. This raises the question: What is the US’s ecommerce penetration rate? 

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US ecommerce market share: 2018–2024

A recent analysis of US ecommerce market share shows this figure largely has risen year after year over the past few years. In 2018, the US ecommerce penetration rate was 9.9%. In other words, less than $10 out of every $100 spent on retail goods was transacted online. 

This rose by 1.2 percentage points in 2019, to 11.1%, before rising further by 3.6 percentage points in 2020, to 14.7%. The US ecommerce penetration rate held steady at 14.7% for the two subsequent years in 2021 and 2022. 

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In 2023, US ecommerce market share increased for the first time in three years, rising by 0.9 percentage points, to 15.6%. Industry experts are predicting an increase of one percentage point in 2024, which will take the ecommerce penetration rate to 16.6%, lower than the global average. 

US ecommerce market share: 2025–2027 forecast

By analysts’ estimates, the US ecommerce penetration rate will continue to rise every year until at least 2027. In 2025, this is forecast to be 17.8%, before rising 1.3 percentage points in 2026, to 19.1%. 

By 2027, more than $1 out of every $5 consumers spend on retail merchandise will be bought online. This is as the US ecommerce penetration rate hits 20.6%, surpassing 20% for the very first time.

From 2018 to 2027, the US ecommerce market share is predicted to more than double, from 9.9% to 20.6%. Online sales are also set to more than triple, from $520 billion to $1.7 trillion over the same period. 

The US’s rising ecommerce penetration rate should come as no surprise, given the many advantages of online shopping

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